On December 11, a notable surge in spot gold prices has occurred, driven by sustained bullish sentimentGold prices have notably surpassed the critical threshold of $2,700 per ounce, prompting a keen anticipation among market participants for the subsequent release of the United States' Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later in the evening.

This upward trend in gold is also reflected in the performance of gold-related stocksIn the Hong Kong market, Lingbao Gold has reported an impressive increase of over 7%, while Zhaojin Mining and China Gold International have seen gains of more than 5% and 4%, respectivelyShandong Gold has also climbed more than 2%. In the A-shares of the mainland market, Hunan Silver has increased by over 3%, with other companies like Hunan Gold, Shanjin International, and China National Gold following suit with slight upticks of over 1%.

Gold ETF funds, such as the one tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange with the code 159937, witnessed an intraday increase of over 1% and reached transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan

Since the beginning of the year, the fund has surged nearly 30%, with its total assets now surpassing 14.4 billion yuan.

Furthermore, the London Gold market experienced a rise of 1.28% the previous day and continued climbing today, even reaching $2,704.35 per ounce, marking a new two-week highMeanwhile, all eyes are on the impending release of the U.SCPI data for NovemberEconomic forecasts suggest a rebound in the inflation rate, with an increase from 2.6% in the previous month to approximately 2.7%. The core CPI is expected to remain within a range of 3.2% to 3.3%.

In addition to these price movements, recent data has revealed that China's official gold reserves stood at 72.96 million ounces by the end of November 2024, marking an increase of 160,000 ounces from OctoberThis rise indicates that the People's Bank of China has resumed its gold purchases for the first time in half a year.

Market analysts, such as Guo Zhongwei from Guotai Junan Securities, suggest that the increasing global uncertainty may heighten anti-globalization trends, leading to a more volatile external environment

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Under these circumstances, accumulating gold reserves can enhance the safety of China's reserve assetsThis action by the Chinese central bank is viewed as a response to the global interest rate reduction cycle and is expected to provide robust support for gold prices while significantly boosting market confidence regarding future gold investments.

In a broader macroeconomic context, Guangfa Futures has noted that the U.Seconomy remains relatively resilient, yet is clouded by the policies of the newly elected U.Sgovernment and the Federal ReserveConcurrently, the global economy is entering a cycle of monetary easing, prompting strong demand for gold purchases by central banks and financial institutions, which in turn has resulted in lower gold inventoriesTariff and fiscal policies are likely to exert additional inflationary pressures, positively influencing gold prices over the long term

Persistent geopolitical risks also warrant close attention, particularly this week as inflation data is released and subsequent interest rate decisions from American and European central banks are anticipated.

Despite some market skepticism, Goldman Sachs has expressed a contrary view regarding future gold pricesContrary to opinions suggesting that gold could not be priced at $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 in a context of a strong dollar, they firmly disagree, projecting that gold prices will indeed reach that levelThe reduced frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rather than a strong dollar, is viewed as the primary downside risk to this forecast.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has echoed similar sentiments, indicating a strategic shift towards investing in 'hard currencies' such as gold and Bitcoin while avoiding debt assets due to escalating debt issues faced by many major economies

In a recent financial conference in Abu Dhabi, Dalio articulated concerns about a potential impending debt currency crisis, which reinforces his choice to invest in tangible asset classes like gold and Bitcoin while steering clear of risk-laden debt instruments.

The gold ETF fund, along with its related funds (A: 002610, C: 002611), plays a pivotal role in the gold investment arena by tracking the spot gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold ExchangeThese funds serve as an effective navigational tool, closely mirroring the performance of gold prices in RenminbiThe gold ETF, in particular, boasts remarkable convenience, heightened liquidity, and lower transaction costs, making it an attractive asset for investorsHistorical data shows that its average tracking error remains below 0.5%, indicative of its excellent tracking capability, akin to a reliable companion closely following gold price fluctuations with minimal deviation.

Moreover, its unique T+0 trading characteristic allows for rapid responses in trading, enabling investors to seize market opportunities expeditiously